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It was two months ago that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have piled up.

According to the data, twice all season has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have put together 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against the Red Devils.

His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.